我國高階文官培訓挑戰與因應策略：前瞻研究觀點
陳秋政、江明修
《摘要》
文獻分析指出我國高階文官培訓需要在制度面、執行面加強對公共服務內部與外部環境的回應，前者意指回民眾的期待，後者則是全球的挑戰。為釐清當前我國高階文官培訓的制度現況、主要挑戰與因應策略為何？本文首先檢閱相關文獻，探討當前我國高階文官培訓的制度現況及其面臨的挑戰。其次運用深度訪談法約訪各方專家，獲取對我國高階文官培訓現況、問題、策略與發展議題的實務經驗與見解，藉以產生德爾菲問卷設計架構，據以設計德爾菲問卷，並續行問卷前測與正式問卷的必要調整及施測。最後運用前瞻研究（foresight study）方法，以兩輪德爾菲問卷調查結果為基礎，召開情境規劃與劇本撰寫座談，邀請三方專家共同確認未來十年我國高階文官培訓的影響因素，分類後據以形成兩條發展軸線、劃分出四項發展可能，並從中擇二深度探討其內容及其與影響因素之間的關係強度與方向，提出兩套情境劇本。
就研究發現與建議而言，主要建立在德爾菲問卷的分析結果。在內部環境的挑戰部分，研究指出五項當前培訓制度的挑戰，其中二項達成「高度共識」、三項達成「中度共識」。在外部環境的挑戰部分，研究指出四項主要挑戰，其中三項達到高度共識、一項達到中度共識。此外，也相對地產生八項因應策略。本研究採用多元研究方法，最終以「環境回應力」、「法制創新」為軸線，分別代表「高階文官培訓問題診斷」及「高階文官培訓策略倡議途徑」，將我國高階文官培訓機制改革思維區分為「保守思維（穩定）、企業家心態（發展）、妥協心態（緩進）、官僚思維（倒退）」等四類，並將台灣高階文官培訓的現狀定位於「保守思維（穩定）」的狀態，同時據此提出兩項「積極發展」、「保守穩定」情境，分別代表發生「想要的未來狀況」（發展型）及「不想要的未來狀況」（倒退型）的發展劇本。
[關鍵詞]：高階文官、培訓制度、前瞻研究、情境規劃
Challenges and Coping Strategies of Senior Civil Service’ Training System in Taiwan: A Perspective of Foresight Study
José Chiu-C. Chen, Min-Hsiu Chiang
Abstract
Literatures have pointed out that the training systems for senior civil service in Taiwan should address challenges from both internal and external environments. The former refers to the expectations from citizens, while the latter is the challenge from around the globe. To clarify the current status of training system for senior civil service in Taiwan, major challenges, and coping strategies, we have first reviewed a wide range of literatures to explore the current status and challenges of Taiwan’s training system for senior civil service. Secondly, we have conducted in-depth interviews among various experts to get their insights on the status, issues, strategies, and development for the training of senior civil service in order to design a framework and draft a Delphi questionnaire, which was then put to some pre-tests and adjusted, before being turned into the official version. Some further tests have also been conducted on the finalized questionnaire before its release. Finally, based on the foresight study approach and the results from two rounds of Delphi questionnaire survey, we have held scenario-planning and scenario-writing seminars, in which experts have been invited to discuss and reach consensus on the factors that may affect the training system for senior civil service in the next 10 years. Those factors have then been classified and used to form two axis and to develop four possible scenarios, from which two have been chosen for in-depth analysis to explore the relationships between the contents and the influencing factors in terms of intensity and direction. After all these efforts, we have then officially proposed two sets of scenarios.
Our findings and recommendations have been mainly based on the analysis of the Delphi questionnaire survey. In terms of challenges to internal environment, our research points out that the current training system faces five challenges. Among them, experts have reached a “high degree of consensus” on two challenges and a “moderate consensus” on the other three. In terms of challenges to the external environment, our research indicates that there are four major challenges. We have reached a high degree of consensus on three of them and a moderate consensus on the other one. In addition, we have also developed eight coping strategies in relation to those challenges. In this study, we have used multiple research methods, and ultimately developed two axis, namely “environmental responsiveness” and “legal innovation,” separately representing the “diagnosis of senior civil service training” and “strategic initiative to senior civil service training.” Following this line of logic, we have then divided the reform thinking of senior civil service training system into four categories, including “conservative thinking (stability)”, “entrepreneur mentality (development)”, “compromising mentality (muddling through)”, and “bureaucratic thinking (backwardness).” We have positioned the current status of Taiwan senior civil service’ training system as “conservative thinking (stable)”, based on which we have then proposed two scenarios, namely “positive development” and “conservatively stable”, representing “desired future state” (developmental type) and “undesired future conditions” (regressive type), respectively.
Keywords: Senior Civil Service, Training System, Foresight Study, Scenario Planning