在民主國家中，政府在制定政策時，會將社會價值、民眾意見、執政黨理念等面向納入考量。不過，許多的政策形成時不是沒有取得證據的支持，就是在政策執行和結束階段缺乏蒐集證據或建立監測和評估的機制，以致於有些政策未如預期地達成政策目標，甚至有時會出現一些未知的和非預期的負面效果。因此，決策者在發展新的政策或評估既有的政策時，若想要做出優質的決策，應該採取循證的政策制定模式。
基本上，循證政策制定是指政策設計應該以分析可取得之資料為依據，而不是依靠主觀判斷或意識型態。尤其是在日益複雜的政策問題環境中，決策者經由證據的取得與應用，有助降低不確定性。本文主要是討論循證的政策制定與資料分析的幾個核心問題：1.如何從民意取向政策制定模式走向循證政策制定模式？2.在不同的政策階段所需要的證據類型為何？3.如何利用循證資料分析支援決策？4.發展循證的政策制定與資料分析的挑戰為何？本文的目的是幫助政策制定者瞭解證據的價值、熟知如何取得有用的證據及在政策過程中善用證據支援決策。
Evidence-based Policy Making and Data Analysis: Challenges and Prospects
Wen-Jong Juang
Abstract
In a democracy, the government makes and implements policy based on many inputs, including societal values, public opinion, and the ideals and visions of the ruling party. However, many policies have been formulated in isolation from available evidence or implemented in the absence of a monitoring and evaluating mechanism that gathers evidence of the impacts and effectiveness of the policy. Without such a mechanism, it may be ineffective in meeting policy objectives and in some cases may even have unknown and unexpected adverse consequences. Accordingly, if policy makers want to make good decisions in developing new policies and in evaluating current policies, they should adopt an evidence-based approach.
Basically, evidence-based policy-making means that policy design should be driven by analysis of all available data, not by subjective judgement or ideology. It can reduce uncertainty in the increasingly complex environments of policy making by using the best available evidence. In this paper, we discuss the following core questions in evidence-based policy making and data analysis: 1. How to move from an opinion-based approach to an evidence-based one in policy making? 2. What kind of evidence may be required at each stage of policy making? 3. How to implement evidence-based data analysis to support decision-making? 4. What are the challenges in developing evidence-based policy making and data analysis? The main purpose of this paper is to help policy makers understand the value of evidence, gain access to evidence and use it appropriately in the policy making process.
Keywords: evidence-based policy making, opinion-based policy making, evidence-based data analysis, domain knowledge, data governance